Perceptions, Decisions and Consequences in Foreign Policy: The Egyptian Intervention in the Yemen

Abstract

Brecher's ‘research design’ is particularly suitable for exploring the process of foreign policy making of transitional political systems characterized by the preponderance of a charismatic leader. In this paper, the ‘research design’ is utilized to explain the decision by President Nasser of Egypt to intervene militarily in the Yemen civil war in September-October, 1962. The various components of the operational environment are first analysed, and then a qualitative and quantitative analysis of Nasser's perceptions of these components is undertaken. Within the context of this perceptual pattern, the decision-making process is then examined and is deemed to comprise three major decisions: two tactical decisions leading to the strategic decision necessitating the commitment of Egyptian troops in the Yemeni civil war. The feedback effects and policy consequences resulting from the implementation of the strategic decision are then explored, and finally, eleven hypotheses are tested against the findings of the study.