Economic Expectations and Voting Intentions in the UK, 1979–87: A Pooled Cross-section Approach

Abstract

Using pooled cross-section data on over 44,000 individuals, this study simultaneously estimates the effects of individual characteristics, individual economic perceptions and macroeconomic conditions on the propensity of UK voters to support the incumbent Conservative government. The findings on the impact of individual characteristics are consistent with those reported in recent British Election Studies. The findings on economic perceptions and macroeconomic changes suggest that, in the UK at least, voters' prospective economic perceptions are far more important than either their retrospective economic judgements or the objective condition of the economy itself. The results also cast light on the debate about the impact of ‘unusual’ political events. In general, these effects seem to be relatively short-lived: the boost to Conservative popularity engendered by the 1982 Falklands War, for example, seems to have petered out well before the 1983 general election.