Ripple effects in regional value chains: Evidence from an episode of the US–China trade war

Author:

Hayakawa Kazunobu1ORCID,Pyun Ju Hyun2ORCID,Yamashita Nobuaki34ORCID,Yang Chih‐hai5ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Bangkok Research Center Institute of Developing Economies Pathumwan Thailand

2. Korea University Business School Seoul South Korea

3. Centre for Transformative Innovation Swinburne University of Technology Hawthorn Victoria Australia

4. School of International Politics, Economics and Communication Aoyama Gakuin University Tokyo Japan

5. Department of Economics National Central University Taoyuan Taiwan

Abstract

AbstractThis study empirically examines the ripple effect of demand shocks on upstream suppliers in regional value chains. Specifically, we investigate how changes in US imports from China alter China's imports of intermediate inputs in machinery industries from Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. The analysis of China's monthly imports from the three supplier economies during 2018–2019 finds that the decrease in China's output exports to the US caused by the Trump tariffs reduced China's input imports from supplier economies. Also, this adverse ripple effect was the most significant in Taiwan, where multinational enterprises use China as an export platform.

Publisher

Wiley

Subject

Political Science and International Relations,Economics and Econometrics,Finance,Accounting

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