Affiliation:
1. Department of Finance International Management Institute – Kolkata Kolkata West Bengal India
2. Symbiosis Institute of Operations Management Symbiosis International (Deemed University) Pune Maharashtra India
3. Department of Agricultural Sciences Texas State University San Marcos Texas USA
4. Department of Economics University of Religions and Denominations Qom Iran
5. School of Business University of Petroleum and Energy Studies Dehradun India
6. International School of Business and Media Kolkata West Bengal India
Abstract
AbstractPrecise electricity forecasting is a pertinent challenge in effectively controlling the supply and demand of power. This is due to the inherent volatility of electricity, which cannot be stored and must be utilised promptly. Thus, this study develops a framework integrating canonical cointegrating regressions (CCR), time series artificial neural network (ANN) and a multilayer perceptron ANN model for analysing and projecting India's gross electricity consumption to 2030. Annual data for the years 1961–2020 have been collected for variables like gross domestic product (GDP), population, inflation GDP deflator (annual %), annual average temperature and electricity consumption. The study was conducted in three phases. In the first phase of the study, the CCR method was used to check the significance of the selected variables. In the second phase, the projected values of independent variables (GDP, population, inflation GDP deflator [annual %] and annual average temperature) were predicted using the time series ANN model. Finally, a multilayer perceptron ANN model with independent variables was used to forecast the gross electricity consumption in India by 2030. The result shows that the electricity consumption in India will increase by around 50% in the next 10 years, reaching over 1800 TWh in 2030. The proposed approach can be utilised to effectively implement energy policies, as an accurate prediction of energy consumption can help capture future demand.
Reference43 articles.
1. Long-term load forecast modelling using a fuzzy logic approach
2. Linear Regression Models to Forecast Electricity Consumption in Italy
3. BP Statistical Review of World Energy. (2022).BP statistical review of World energy[WWW Document].https://BPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy.
4. CCKP and World Bank Open Data. (2022).Climate Change Knowledge Portal and World Bank Open Data[WWW Document].https://data.worldbank.org/
5. Electricity demand forecasting over Italy: Potential benefits using numerical weather prediction models