Power outage prediction using data streams: An adaptive ensemble learning approach with a feature‐ and performance‐based weighting mechanism

Abstract

AbstractA wide variety of weather conditions, from windstorms to prolonged heat events, can substantially impact power systems, posing many risks and inconveniences due to power outages. Accurately estimating the probability distribution of the number of customers without power using data about the power utility system and environmental and weather conditions can help utilities restore power more quickly and efficiently. However, the critical shortcoming of current models lies in the difficulties of handling (i) data streams and (ii) model uncertainty due to combining data from various weather events. Accordingly, this article proposes an adaptive ensemble learning algorithm for data streams, which deploys a feature‐ and performance‐based weighting mechanism to adaptively combine outputs from multiple competitive base learners. As a proof of concept, we use a large, real data set of daily customer interruptions to develop the first adaptive all‐weather outage prediction model using data streams. We benchmark several approaches to demonstrate the advantage of our approach in offering more accurate probabilistic predictions. The results show that the proposed algorithm reduces the probabilistic predictions' error of the base learners between 4% and 22% with an average of 8%, which also result in substantially more accurate point predictions. The improvement made by our algorithm is enhanced as we exchange base learners with simpler models.