The limits of parametric reforms in sustaining the Algerian retirement system in a context of population ageing

Abstract

AbstractAccelerated population ageing in Algeria threatens the financial sustainability of its pay‐as‐you‐go retirement system. Reform is a necessity, with options ranging from simple parametric reforms to important systemic changes. Prior to undertaking systemic reforms, it is worthwhile to investigate whether parametric reforms can place the system on a financially sustainable footing. In this article, we used a multi‐scenario analysis that crosses the possible reform actions with possible socioeconomic scenarios. The results show that when using the most favourable scenarios, the financial balance of the Algerian system will remain negative in the short and long term. Implementing major parametric reforms can only help reduce the deficit and make it stable over time. Thereafter, systemic reforms will have to be implemented.