Identifying minimum freshwater habitat conditions for an endangered fish using life cycle analysis

Abstract

AbstractIdentifying the most important factors affecting population growth in animal life cycles is an important tool of species conservation. Delta Smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus), an annual fish endemic to the San Francisco Estuary in California (USA), has been provided legal protection since 1993 but 30 years later exists in a conservation‐reliant state on the brink of extinction. Despite considerable controversies about what factors are most responsible for the species' decline, no population growth rate sensitivity comparisons between the most important factors regulating growth have been done. Nor has anyone attempted to quantitatively identify habitat conditions needed to support positive population growth. We developed a set of stage‐structured population models to link habitat indices regulating recruitment of new generations of fish as they metamorphosed into juveniles and the subsequent survival of those fish over several seasons until they reached adulthood. These models are used to quantify drivers of growth rate variation over 30 years. Several complimentary sensitivity analyses indicated freshwater outflow to the estuary during summer had the largest potential to change population growth. Multiple habitat metrics (e.g., food availability, temperature) influencing recruitment and life stage specific survival rates across different seasons interacted in nonlinear ways to determine habitat conditions and water management targets associated with positive population growth. We discuss the implications for freshwater management, Delta Smelt conservation, and the challenges climate change poses for co‐implementation of these two societal priorities.