Modelling the scope to conserve an endemic‐rich mountain butterfly taxon in a changing climate

Abstract

Abstract Taxa restricted to mountains may be vulnerable to global warming, unless local‐scale topographic variation and conservation actions can protect them against expected changes to the climate. We tested how climate change will affect the 19 mountain‐restricted Erebia species of the Iberian Peninsula, of which 7 are endemic. To examine the scope for local topographic variation to protect against warming, we applied species distribution models (HadGEM2 and MPI) at two spatial scales (10 × 10 and 1 × 1 km) for two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) in 2050 and 2070. We also superimposed current and future ranges on the protected area (PA) network to identify priority areas for adapting Erebia conservation to climate change. In 10 × 10 km HadGEM2 models, climatically suitable areas for all species decreased in 2050 and 2070 (average −95.7%). Modelled decreases at 1 × 1 km were marginally less drastic (−95.3%), and 14 out of 19 species were still expected to lose their entire climatically favourable range by 2070. The PA network is well located to conserve the species that are expected to retain some climatically suitable areas in 2070. However, we identify 25 separate 10 × 10 km squares where new PAs would help to adapt the network to expected range shifts or contractions by Erebia. Based on our results, adapting the conservation of range‐restricted mountain taxa to projected climate change will require the implementation of complementary in situ and ex situ measures alongside urgent climate change mitigation.