Effects of the Colombia Peace negotiation process on gross domestic product per capita

Abstract

AbstractThis article attempts to determine whether the peace negotiation process initiated in Colombia that culminated with the Peace Treaty in 2016 had a positive economic effect, using the National Gross Domestic Product per capita as a measure. We apply a synthetic control method that is appropriate for a policy evaluation. Considering the anticipated and realized effects on economic variables, our results suggest that the Peace Treaty has positively influenced gross domestic product per capita. Furthermore, this positive effect has been maintained through 2021, the last available year of data. Data to 2021 show post‐pandemic Colombia is better off when compared with a hypothetical Colombia—or synthetic Colombia—that did not begin a peace negotiation process.