The determinants of voting for Republican congressional candidates in the Texas borderlands

Abstract

AbstractObjectiveA shift of Latino voters to Republican Party candidates has been observed in recent years. Past research on presidential elections supports the idea that borderlands counties vote differently than other counties in borderlands states and tend to favor Democratic Party candidates. This study explores congressional voting patterns in the Texas borderlands.MethodsUsing county‐level data for Texas counties in 2010 and 2022, this study examines Republican congressional voting as a function of (1) borderlands cultural and economic context, (2) economic conditions, (3) social contact, and (4) religious adherence. We contribute to existing scholarship by proposing that there are three district border subregions.ResultsOverall, this study finds increased levels of support for Republican congressional candidates in the borderlands region. However, when subregions are compared, those counties with economic linkages to Mexico and rural Tejano counties are more likely to vote for Democratic Party candidates in 2010 and 2022. The West Texas borderlands region, however, is no longer distinctive from other Texas counties in terms of voting patterns in 2022.ConclusionVoters in the predominantly Latino Texas borderlands are increasingly voting for Republican congressional candidates suggesting a change in partisan attachment. The effects of foreign‐born arrivals and rising economic optimism in the borderlands may lead to more voting for Republican candidates. However, current economic realities and linkages as well as past social and political marginalization may continue to make borderlands voters distinct.