Selective Mortality and the Long‐Term Effects of Early‐Life Exposure to Natural Disasters

Abstract

AbstractWe analyze the effects of early‐life shocks in the Philippines and find that in utero exposure to severe typhoons is associated with adverse outcomes. We exploit variations in typhoon exposure and sharp increases in short‐term disaster relief efforts in the 1960s. Before the increase in disaster relief efforts, in utero exposure to severe typhoons was associated with higher mortality (a 9% reduction in cohort size); survivors exhibited similar levels of human capital as the unaffected. After the increase in disaster relief, the mortality effects were mitigated; however, survivors exhibited lower human capital in the long term. We offer suggestive evidence that the observed changes in adverse long‐term effects are due to the relief efforts' effectiveness in increasing survival probability.