Adaptive sampling in ecology: Key challenges and future opportunities

Abstract

Abstract Traditional ecological monitoring employs fixed designs, which do not vary over the survey duration. Adaptive sampling, whereby the data already collected informs a sampling design which changes over the course of the study, can provide a more optimal and flexible survey design but is little used in ecology. We aim to provide an introduction to adaptive sampling for ecologists. We review previous literature and highlight examples of both empirical adaptive approaches, such as adaptive cluster sampling, and more novel model‐based adaptive methods. To conceptualise the process of adaptive sampling we identify four key stages: choice of data, definition of a criterion, selection of new sampling occasions and sampling activity. We discuss each stage in turn and focus on the decisions ecologists need to consider in order to successfully implement an adaptive sampling strategy. We include a full walkthrough of an adaptive sampling example with code provided to demonstrate each step. Adaptive sampling has potential advantages to ecologists but so far has had limited uptake. We review key challenges and barriers to uptake and suggest potential ways forward. We hope our paper will both increase awareness of adaptive sampling methods and provide a useful resource for ecologists considering an adaptive survey design.