The War in Ukraine, Food Security and the Role for Europe

Abstract

SummaryFood‐security implications of the war in Ukraine are exacerbated by adverse weather events, spillover effects from the distortion of energy and fertiliser markets, and domestic policies that countries around the world have implemented in pursuit of food security. Estimates suggest that the cumulative effect of these channels in terms of restricting agricultural and food trade is in the order of over 10 times larger, and their cumulative effect on global food supply is on average three times more substantial than the direct agricultural supply disruptions in Ukraine. The latter, however, disproportionally impacts low‐income countries that are particularly vulnerable to food supply shortages and price increases. In the case of the EU, although overall food availability is not at stake, food affordability for low‐income households is a concern, especially when combined with rising prices of other essential goods, such as energy and transportation. To ensure the resilience of domestic and global food systems, the EU and its Member States should extend a set of already implemented policies, including better‐targeted support for the low‐income households in the region, implementation of trade facilitation measures via international cooperation, and support for agricultural production in the most vulnerable countries, and should also facilitate the restoration of Ukraine's lost agricultural assets.