External validation of a predictive model for aged‐related skin tears in Fitzpatrick skin types I–IV cohort

Abstract

AbstractOlder Australians are at increased risk of skin tears with the risk not always recognised or the injury able to be prevented. This study externally validated Rayner et al. (2019) Skin Tear Risk Prediction Model in an independent aged cohort with a Fitzpatrick skin types I–IV from across multiple residential‐care sites, over a 6‐month period. A total of 362 individuals aged between 65 and 102.5 years completed the study. In all, 165‐residents sustained one or more skin tears. Logistic regression analysis was conducted of the five variables (gender, previous history of skin tears, previous history of falls, purpura and solar elastosis) identified in the skin tear model. The skin tear model provided ‘good’ to nearly ‘very good discrimination’ for correctly classifying residents at‐risk or not‐at‐risk (area under the curve of 0.799 [95% confidence interval, CI: 0.75–0.84]). The skin tear model correctly predicted 75.8% (sensitivity) of participants with skin tears and 71.6% (specificity) of residents without skin tears. The model demonstrated it could work as a screening tool to identify older individuals at risk of skin tears and would benefit clinical practice as it was easy to use, was reproducible, and had good accuracy across aged‐care residents with a Fitzpatrick skin type I–IV.