Authors of misfortune: interpretation and expertise in a model disaster

Abstract

AbstractSince 2001, beetles have killed two‐thirds of the pine trees in British Columbia, Canada, decimating the predominant commercial tree species in one of the world's largest timber economies. Attempts to construct and circulate computer models of the infestation and its aftermaths, however, have obscured destabilizing changes across state institutions for environmental research. Juxtaposing literary conceptualizations of distributed authorship with ethnographic critiques of technoscientific bureaucracy, this article examines how the proliferation of computer models in contemporary resource planning institutions has altered the ways experts participate in and sanction interpretive communities. The dynamic conceptualizations of authorship produced through these exchanges challenge existing portraits of anticipatory governance, an emergent mode of administration that often relies on models for procedural implementation and narrative framing even as it circumscribes modellers’ voices to specific moments of interpretation and critique. While modellers make claims on distant futures to provoke discussion among diverse actors, later interpreters may highlight a model's apparent precision or its radical uncertainties to defer criticisms of problematic interventions and government restructuring. Such modes of attribution have deepened many scientists’ sense of estrangement from the interpretive communities their models help to engender.