Improving Probability Judgment in Intelligence Analysis: From Structured Analysis to Statistical Aggregation
Author:
Affiliation:
1. KaDSciLLC Fairfax VA USA
2. Intelligence, Influence and Collaboration SectionDefence Research and Development Canada Toronto ON Canada
Funder
Canadian Safety and Security Program project
Publisher
Wiley
Subject
Physiology (medical),Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality
Link
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/risa.13443
Reference67 articles.
1. Aggregating Subjective Forecasts: Some Empirical Results
2. How to Be IncoherentandSeductive: Bookmakers' Odds and Support Theory
3. Making Intelligence Analysis More Intelligent: Using Numeric Probabilities
4. The Aggregation of Expert Judgment: Do Good Things Come to Those Who Weight?
5. VERIFICATION OF FORECASTS EXPRESSED IN TERMS OF PROBABILITY
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