Lost in translation: understanding divergent perspectives on a depleted fish stock

Abstract

Fishers commonly disagree with stock assessment results, particularly when a stock declines and strict harvest controls become necessary. Such regulations alter fisher perceptions of stock dynamics, contributing to a divergence in perspectives. Some assessments have inconsistent terminal year values (retrospective patterns) which fuel distrust in scientific advice. When assessment and fishery perspectives disagree, independent surveys can help identify biases and interpret discrepancies. We examine fishery trends and assessment results for Atlantic cod in the Gulf of Maine, a stock which has declined for decades. Trends were compared to a scientific industry cooperative trawl survey and a telephone survey of fisher perceptions. Trawl survey results generally corroborate the assessment perspective on population scale and decline, yet suggest a different view of the age structure. Fisher perceptions were at odds with the assessment and trawl survey and likely resulted from regulations that altered fisher behavior, causing catch rates to increase while the stock declined. Divergent perspectives may be an unavoidable consequence of fishery management, yet acknowledging the underlying mechanisms might help avoid future conflict.