Has primary production declined in the Salish Sea?

Abstract

Declining primary production has been proposed as an explanation for the declines in coho (Oncorhynchus kisutch) and Chinook (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) salmon in the Salish Sea since the 1970s. Marine sediments maintain a continuous record of conditions in the overlying water. We used stable isotopes of organic carbon and nitrogen measured in 21 sediment cores to determine the contributions and fluxes of marine-derived and terrigenous organic matter over time. The flux of marine-derived organic matter shows no trend for at least the last 100 years. An apparent increase in the marine flux in recent years is due to remineralization of organic matter as it passes through surface sediments. In contrast, the flux of terrigenous organic matter has increased over the last century in the Strait of Georgia, while in Puget Sound, terrigenous flux peaked in the mid-20th century. Total primary production has neither increased nor decreased in the Salish Sea over the last century. Consequently, a decline in primary production cannot explain recent declines in fish populations.