The role of propagule pressure and environmental factors on the establishment of a large invasive cyprinid: black carp in the Laurentian Great Lakes basin

Abstract

Understanding the factors underlying species establishment is critical for the management of invasive fishes, yet the roles of propagule pressure and environmental factors are infrequently quantified in joint models. We estimated the establishment likelihood of the invasive black carp (Mylopharyngodon piceus) by examining the relative influence of propagule pressure (introduction size and age structure) and environmental factors (temperature-driven young-of-year [YOY] overwinter survival, adult survival, age at maturity, and longevity). Simulations demonstrated that both propagule pressure and environmental factors can act as non-linear bottlenecks to establishment. When the model was applied to 12 Great Lakes tributaries and nearshore areas, black carp establishment was probable with sufficient propagules and under most environmental conditions (median p = 0.21–0.73, 0.70–1.00, and 0.46–0.97 for 100 pairs of age 4, age 9, and age 16 fish, respectively), except for YOY (p < 0.01). Our analysis is one of the few studies to examine the relative role of propagule pressure and environmental conditions on establishment, indicating that both factors can lead to establishment failure independently or concurrently within an ecosystem.