On the economic value of weather forecasts in wildfire suppression mobilization decisions

Abstract

Decision analysis is used to model the rational use and estimate the economic value of weather forecasts in a specific decision-making situation relating to wildfire suppression mobilization. In this situation two fires in a national forest that differ only in timber type and location may require fire-suppression assistance from an adjacent national forest, depending on the weather conditions. The assistance available in the adjacent national forest consists of one 20-man hand crew and one bulldozer. Decisions regarding whether to request assistance and whether and where to deploy these suppression resources are assumed to be made on the basis of weather forecasts. Weather forecasts are found to be useful in this context because they enable the fire manager to select in an optimal manner the fire at which the suppression resources are likely to be most beneficial on each occasion. Specifically, state of the art forecasts have an expected economic value of almost $61 00 in this situation, and perfect information would have a value of approximately $16 600. Sensitivity analysis reveals that these results are quite sensitive to variations in fire outcome (i.e., numbers of acres burned). Improvements in forecast quality would lead to substantial increases in the economic value of weather forecasts in this two-fire situation.