Effects of wind damage on the optimal management of boreal forests under current and changing climatic conditions

Abstract

This study presents a new method for considering the risk of wind damage in forest planning and for predicting the amount of damage and its effects on timber production, economic profitability and carbon balance of forestry. The effects of wind damage on the optimal management of boreal forests under current and changing climatic conditions were analyzed by comparing four forest management plans. A reference plan maximized net present value (NPV) with even-flow harvesting constraints. The second plan minimized height differences between adjacent stands, the third minimized height differences while simultaneously maximizing NPV, and the fourth maximized height differences between adjacent stands. To obtain damage-adjusted results, schedules that belonged to the optimal management plans were simulated with wind damage, taking into account the shelter provided by adjacent stands. Maximizing NPV and simultaneously minimizing height differences resulted in the highest damage-adjusted NPV. Increasing wind damage increased carbon balance of forest soil but decreased the total carbon balance of forestry as it decreased the carbon balances of living forest biomass and wood-based products. Climate change slightly improved the total carbon balance of forestry. If wind damage was ignored in calculations, NPV, total carbon balance of forestry, and timber production were overestimated.