Cyclic dynamics of sympatric lemming populations on Bylot Island, Nunavut, Canada

Abstract

We characterized the fluctuations (amplitude, periodicity) of two sympatric species, the brown lemming ( Lemmus sibiricus (Kerr, 1792)) and the northern collared lemming ( Dicrostonyx groenlandicus (Traill, 1823)), in a High Arctic area. Our objective was to determine if these populations were cyclic, and if fluctuations in numbers were synchronized between the two species temporally and spatially. An annual index of lemming abundance was obtained using snap-traps at two sites 30 km apart on Bylot Island (Nunavut, Canada) over 13 years (1993–2005) and 9 years (1997–2005), respectively. The time series were analyzed by spectral analyses and autoregressive modelling. At the site with the longest record, brown lemming showed regular population fluctuations of large amplitude (>40-fold), but collared lemming fluctuations were of much smaller amplitude (4-fold). At the other site, the collared lemming population was higher than at the main site, but brown lemmings were still most abundant in the peak year. Models with a second-order function obtained from a spectral analysis were highly correlated with the observed abundance index in both species at the site with the longest time series, and provide evidence of cyclic dynamic. The periods of the cycles were estimated at 3.69 ± 0.04 (SE) years for brown lemmings and 3.92 ± 0.24 (SE) years for collared lemmings, but the amplitude of the cycle was weak in the latter species. Fluctuations in abundance at the same site were relatively well synchronized between the two species, but the evidence for synchrony between sites was equivocal.