Techniques for assessing the effects of pest hazards on long-run timber supply

Abstract

Stand-level and forest-level models are developed for the purpose of assessing the effects of pest hazards on long-term timber supply. The stand-level model yields formulas for the long-run average yield and the land expectation value when both the risk of infestation by pests and the risk of total destruction by fire are present. Infestations are assumed to occur with a probability dependent upon stand age. A forest-level harvest scheduling procedure of the model II type, which allows for pest infestation and fire destruction, is developed. Numerical examples are given, using data for lodgepole pine in the Quesnel Timber Supply Area of British Columbia, assuming various patterns of infestation by mountain pine bark beetle.