A fuzzy expert system for design performance prediction and evaluation

Abstract

This paper describes a fuzzy expert system for design project performance evaluation and prediction. It presents a comprehensive framework of factors that impact design performance and factors used to measure performance. A new approach to generating membership functions based on objective data is presented. This approach provides for membership functions that are widely applicable in a given context and can be calibrated to suit different contexts. A method of generating expert rules to relate factors impacting design performance is presented. A survey was conducted to collect data to develop and test the proposed methods. These methods were used in developing the fuzzy expert system. Based on validation of the system, the fuzzy expert system provides accurate linguistic predictions of design performance parameters. The methods presented in this paper are useful and realistic in modeling design performance and in capturing the inherent subjectivity involved.Key words: construction, design, evaluation, expert systems, fuzzy logic, performance, prediction, productivity.