Barnett Shale Production Outlook

Abstract

Summary We developed a production-outlook model on the basis of an interdisciplinary analysis of production data from more than 15,000 wells and geologic data on the Barnett play. The model is the most granular to date because it incorporates 10 tiers of varying productivity and well economics of average wells by tier; it covers close to 8,000 square-mile blocks across partly drained and undrilled acreage, divided between low-Btu and high-Btu segments, and uses drillwell potential by tier for the total area; and it is unique in its use of production profiles on the basis of transient linear drainage. Drilling pace is adjusted to changes in natural-gas price relative to well economics, historical attrition rates, and logistical constraints. We analyze scenarios and conduct a simulation analysis on the basis of reasonable ranges for natural-gas price, remaining acreage developable in partly drained and undrilled blocks, improvement in technology and well cost performance, and economic limit for shutting in a well. The Barnett is the most exploited shale play in the world; cumulative production to 2012 is 13 Tcf. Our analysis indicates remaining recovery of approximately 2.5 times of cumulative production in the base case, but this is subject to many uncertainties. Base case results are consistent with actual production in 2011 and 2012.