Normalized GRP power intensity model with correlation-factor of regional electricity at-market value and other criteria

Abstract

RF State Duma Committee for Energy launched an initiative to raise investment attractiveness of regions through transmission tariffs decrease by consolidated tariff approval in neighboring regions, having widely different transmission tariffs. However, positive effect in the region with decreased tariff is associated with the negative effect in the region with increased tariff. To make a cumulative effects assessment for regions where transmission consolidated tariff approval is planned, the correlation between GRP power intensity and regional electricity at-market value is to be proved, and other regional criteria expose too. At the state level, it is determined that one of the challenges to energy security is the transition of the Russian Federation to a new model of socio-economic development. These changes should ensure balanced spatial and regional development. At the same time, differences in the electricity price for production consumption may affect the balance of regional development. The paper presents research results of GRP power intensity dependence on an average regional electricity at-market value (for non-household consumers), including network tariff and other regional factors. The research is based on data of regional electric power consumption and gross regional product values of 78 Russian Federation regions for every year of 2014-2019 period after Power Sector Reform completion. For region scale the authors calculate factors of normalized GRP power intensity, a share of regional power consumption by energy-intense branches, a normalized employment to GRP. The calculation of normalized GRP power intensity applies all economic activities integrated demand (business electricity consumption) and eliminates electric line power losses and household consumption. 3-factor models of normalized GRP power intensity were calculated for every year of 2014-2019 period by weighted least squares. Negative partial regression coefficient of normalized GRP power intensity dependence on regional electricity at-market value confirm a hypothesis that a lower at-market value region has a greater normalized GRP power intensity.