Factors affecting Russian grain market conjuncture

Abstract

In recent years, Russia has been steadily increasing the production and export of grain, becoming one of its largest suppliers to the world market. The specific feature of Russian grain market is high uncertainty of its conjuncture. The purpose of the study is to identify the most significant factors influencing the situation on the Russian grain market by identifying the most popular news topics. The object of the study is the audience of specialized information and analytical site ≪Zerno On-Line≫, the subject is its thematic preferences. The author first systematizes the factors of greatest impact on the grain market. He then highlights news topics related to market factors and keywords in the headline of news dedicated to these topics, and identifies the most popular topics based on counting the number of views of news items published during the five growing seasons. The study shows that most significant factors for grain market participants are prices, government policy on grain market and the level of investment activity. Among government measures that determine the situation on the grain market, we can name interventions and export restrictions (duties and quotas). Supply is of the least importance for grain market participants. Factors such as acreage and sowing progress have little effect on the grain market. The results of the study also show that the attention of market participants to ongoing processes varies seasonally and coincides with the dynamics of business activity. However, when information field is oversaturated with one topic, interest in it decreases. The results of the study can be used to draw up economic forecasts, business plans, as well as to adjust state regulation of the grain market.