Clinical profiles and predictors of survival in severe dengue cases

Abstract

Abstract Introduction: Dengue is endemic in tropical countries. Severe dengue has a high risk of morbidity and mortality. We aimed to identify factors associated with dengue survival among our intensive care unit (ICU) patients. Methods: A retrospective study was conducted among dengue cases admitted to the ICU of Hospital Sultan Abdul Halim, Kedah, Malaysia from 2016 to 2019. Results: Out of 1,852 dengue cases admitted to the hospital, 7.2% of patients required ICU admission. Survival rate was 88.6% among severe dengue cases. The majority of severe dengue patients were obese, while other notable comorbidities included hypertension and diabetes mellitus. Also, 73% of patients presented in the critical phase, at a median of Day 4 of illness. All patients admitted to the ICU had a history of fever. The predominant warning signs were lethargy, fluid accumulation and haemoconcentration with rapid platelet reduction. Among nonsurvivors, 69.2% had fulminant hepatitis, 53.8% had massive bleeding or disseminated intravascular coagulation, 38.5% had haemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis and 30.8% had myocarditis. The predominant serotypes were DENV-3 and DENV-1. The least number of cases was seen in 2017, when all serotypes were equally presented. Multiple logistic regression showed that Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, peak international normalised ratio, peak partial thromboplastin time and aspartate aminotransferase on admission were independent risk factors for survival. This model had an area under the curve of 0.98, giving an overall 98.2% accuracy. Conclusions: Specific warning signs and blood investigations in dengue patients may aid in early decision for ICU admission. Monitoring of SOFA scores plus coagulation and liver enzyme profiles could improve dengue survival rates.