1. We consider current demand or a bit larger even though we anticipate substantial changes in vehicles that will reduce per vehicle per kilometer demand significantly. However, the demand for vehicles is increasing in developing economies and most projections do not expect worldwide demand for liquid hydrocarbons to fall off and do expect them to continue to grow modestly.
2. See for example, The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040, www.exxonmobil.com/corporate/files/news_pub_eo2013.pdf (accessed 19.01.13).
3. 50% of cars from model year 1990 were still on the road after 16.9 years and 10% are projected to be after 28 years. 50% of light trucks from model year 1990 were still on the road after 15.5 years and 10% are projected to be after about 26 years. 50% of heavy trucks from model year 1990 are projected to be on the road after 28.0 years. Data taken from Ref. [6].
4. Valuation of plug-in vehicle life-cycle air emissions and oil displacement benefits
5. K. Aguirre, L. Eisenhardt, C. Lim, B. Nelson, A. Norring, P. Slowik, N. Tu, Lifecycle analysis comparison of a battery electric vehicle and a conventional gasoline vehicle, prepared for California air resources board by students of the UCLA school of the environment and sustainability, Available from: http://www.environment.ucla.edu/media_IOE/files/BatteryElectricVehicleLCA2012-rh-ptd.pdf (accessed 17.01.13).