Landslide Potential Evaluation Using Fragility Curve Model

Abstract

The geological environment of Taiwan mainly contains steep topography and geologically fragile ground surface. Therefore, the vulnerable environmental conditions are prone to landslides during torrential rainfalls and typhoons. The rainfall-induced shallow landslide has become more common in Taiwan due to the extreme weathers in recent years. To evaluate the potential of landslide and its impacts, an evaluation method using the historical rainfall data (the hazard factor) and the temporal characteristics of landslide fragility curve (LFC, the vulnerability factor) was developed and described in this chapter. The LFC model was based on the geomorphological and vegetation factors using landslides at the Chen-Yu-Lan watershed in Taiwan, during events of Typhoon Sinlaku (September 2009) and Typhoon Morakot (August 2009). The critical hazard potential (Hc) and critical fragility potential (Fc) were introduced to express the probability of exceeding a damage state of landslides under certain conditions of rainfall intensity and accumulated rainfall. Case studies at Shenmu village in Taiwan were applied to illustrate the proposed method of landslide potential assessment and the landslide warning in practice. Finally, the proposed risk assessment for landslides can be implemented in the disaster response system and be extended to take debris flows into consideration altogether.