Changing patterns of pasture production in south-eastern Australia from 1960 to 2015

Abstract

The seasonal pattern of pasture production and its variability from year to year are important for pasture-based livestock production systems in south-eastern Australia because they influence key strategic decisions such as stocking rate and timing of the reproductive cycle. In this study, the effects of observed climate variations over the period 1960–2015 on pasture growth patterns were investigated by using a biophysical modelling approach. Pasture growth rates were simulated using DairyMod biophysical software at five sites ranging from high-rainfall, cool temperate at Elliott in Tasmania to medium-rainfall, warm temperate at Wagga Wagga in southern New South Wales. Annual pasture yields showed a small increasing rate of 50 kg DM/ha.year at Elliott and 40 kg DM/ha.year at Ellinbank (P < 0.05), whereas other sites showed no significant trend over time. A cross-site analysis of seasonal average pasture growth rates predicted under four different discrete periods of 14 years each showed that winter growth has increased steadily through time (P = 0.001), and spring pasture growth rate has decreased (P < 0.001) in 2002–15 compared with the earlier periods. Year-to-year pasture yield variability (coefficient of variation) during autumn and spring seasons has also increased (P < 0.05) across sites in the period 2002–15 compared with 1998–2001. At each site, the number of spring days with water stress (growth limiting factor_water <0.7) was ~10 times greater than the number of days with temperature stress (growth limiting factor_temperature <0.7). There was an increase in the number of days with water stress at Wagga Wagga, and increased heat stress at Wagga Wagga and Hamilton (P < 0.05) in the most recent period. These results highlight the importance of incorporating more heat-tolerant and deep-rooting cultivars into pasture-based production system. Although previous studies of climate-change impact have predicted increasing winter growth rates and a contraction of the spring growing season in the future (2030), this study provides clear evidence that these changes are already occurring under the observed climate in south-eastern Australia.