Evaluation of the Experimental Climate Prediction Center's fire danger forecasts with remote automated weather station observations

Abstract

The Scripps Experimental Climate Prediction Center has been routinely making regional forecasts of atmospheric elements and fire danger indices since 27 September 1997. This study evaluates these forecasts using selected remote automated weather station observations over the western USA. Bias and anomaly correlations are computed for daily 2-m maximum, minimum, average temperature, 2-m maximum, minimum and average relative humidity, precipitation and afternoon 10-m wind speed, and four National Fire Danger Rating System indices—ignition component, spread component, burning index and energy release component. Of the atmospheric elements, temperature generally correlates well, but relative humidity, precipitation and wind speed are less correlated. Fire danger indices have much lower correlations, but do show useful spatial structure in some areas such as Southern California, Arizona and Nevada.