The modern state and forecast model of the development of the agrarian structure of the domestic agro-industrial complex

Abstract

Abstract. Purpose. The purpose of the research is to analyze the existing and build a forecast model for the development of various forms of agricultural management and their combination, which determine the level of production potential of the country's multicultural agriculture. Methods. When conducting scientific research, such methods as: monographic, economic comparisons, graphic techniques, monitoring studies, institutional and system analysis, econometric research methods were used. Statistical data of Rosstat, the Ministry of Agriculture of Russia and their regional divisions were used as an empirical basis for carrying out forecast calculations. Scientific novelty. The author proposes a trend model for forecasting the development of the agrarian structure of Russia for 2030. The most important factors of the modern development of the industry that determine the likely change in the agrarian structure of Russia in the medium term: instability of geopolitical and trade and economic cooperation, as well as the strengthening of the scale of the policy of economic sanctions are highlighted. Results. The article discusses the main current trends in the development of a multi-layered agricultural structure, as well as the forecast parameters of its development. The analysis showed that the modern agrarian structure of Russia is characterized by trends of consolidation and the predominance of agricultural organizations and agroholding structures, which account for almost 60% of agricultural production. The forecast calculations carried out allow us to talk about the strengthening of the positions of large agribusiness and the development of the farming sector with a simultaneous reduction in the role of households for the next 10 years. The developed forecast picture of the development of the agrarian structure can serve as a vector determining the main directions of improvement and adjustment of mechanisms and instruments of state regulation and support of the agricultural sector, ensuring the sustainable development of the industry on an innovative basis.