Recent Progress and Emerging Topics on Weather and Climate Extremes Since the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Abstract

Weather and climate extremes impose serious impacts on natural and human systems. In its fifth assessment report (AR5) and a special report [Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX)], the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change provided a thorough assessment of observed and projected changes in extremes in a warming climate, with evidenced scientific gaps in the understanding of these responsive changes being reported. Reviewing post-AR5 literature, this article synthesizes recent advances regarding these previous gaps with respect to detection, attribution, and projection of extremes. We focus on constraints for the assessment confidence, overlooked types and characteristics of extremes, and changes in their thermodynamic-dynamic drivers. We also stress potential misinterpretations of existing results, propose an update of earlier key findings, and identify burgeoning topics.