Survival and selection biases in early animal evolution and a source of systematic overestimation in molecular clocks

Author:

Budd GrahamORCID,Mann Richard P.

Abstract

Important evolutionary events such as the Cambrian Explosion have inspired many attempts at explanation: why do they happen when they do? What shapes them, and why do they eventually come to an end? However, much less attention has been paid to the idea of a “null hypothesis” – that certain features of such diversifications arise simply through their statistical structure. Looking back from our own perspective to the origins of large groups such as the arthropods, or even the animals themselves, will expose features that look causal but are in fact inevitable. Here we review these features with particular regard to the Cambrian explosion. We conclude that the fossil record of the late Ediacaran to Cambrian is very likely to be recording a true evolutionary radiation at this time; and show how the unusually rapid nature of this event leads to characteristic over-estimation of its time of origin by molecular clock methods - an artefact that is likely to apply to other unusually fast radiations too.

Publisher

Center for Open Science

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