Future Arctic Marine Navigation: Complexity and Uncertainties

Abstract

Many uncertainties and a complex suite of drivers of change are influencing the future of Arctic marine operations and commercial shipping. Most notably, the well-documented reduction of Arctic sea ice extent and thickness and the transition from thick, multi-year to seasonal, first-year ice are profound responses to anthropogenic climate change. The Arctic Ocean is becoming more navigable, with greater marine access now attained in most regions. The possibilities for longer seasons of marine navigation during spring, summer, and autumn are real, but the vision of new, year-round (routine) Arctic shipping that could alter global trade routes remains highly implausible. Arctic shipping remains largely destinational, with ships traveling into the Arctic Ocean to conduct an economic activity (Lasserre, 2019).