Development of a novel staging classification for Siewert II adenocarcinoma of the esophagogastric junction after neoadjuvant chemotherapy

Abstract

BACKGROUND Stage classification for Siewert II adenocarcinoma of the esophagogastric junction (AEG) treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) has not been established. AIM To investigate the optimal stage classification for Siewert II AEG with NAC. METHODS A nomogram was established based on Cox regression model that analyzed variables associated with overall survival (OS) and disease-specific survival (DSS). The nomogram performance in terms of discrimination and calibration ability was evaluated using the likelihood-ratio test, Akaike information criterion, Harrell concordance index, time-receiver operating characteristic curve, and decision curve analysis. RESULTS Data from 725 patients with Siewert type II AEG who underwent neoadjuvant therapy and gastrectomy were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Univariate and multivariate analyses revealed that sex, marital status, race, ypT stage, and ypN stage were independent prognostic factors of OS, whereas sex, race, ypT stage, and ypN stage were independent prognostic factors for DSS. These factors were incorporated into the OS and DSS nomograms. Our novel nomogram model performed better in terms of OS and DSS prediction compared to the 8th American Joint Committee of Cancer pathological staging system for esophageal and gastric cancer. Finally, a user-friendly web application was developed for clinical use. CONCLUSION The nomogram established specifically for patients with Siewert type II AEG receiving NAC demonstrated good prognostic performance. Validation using external data is warranted before its widespread clinical application.