Evaluation of a phosphate kinetics model in hemodialysis therapy—Assessment of the temporal robustness of model predictions

Abstract

AbstractIn‐depth understanding of intra‐ and postdialytic phosphate kinetics is important to adjust treatment regimens in hemodialysis. We aimed to modify and validate a three‐compartment phosphate kinetic model to individual patient data and assess the temporal robustness. Intradialytic phosphate samples were collected from the plasma and dialysate of 12 patients during two treatments (HD1 and HD2). 2‐h postdialytic plasma samples were collected in four of the patients. First, the model was fitted to HD1 samples from each patient to estimate the mass transfer coefficients. Second, the best fitted model in each patient case was validated on HD2 samples. The best model fits were determined from the coefficient of determination (R2) values. When fitted to intradialytic samples only, the median (interquartile range) R2 values were 0.985 (0.959–0.997) and 0.992 (0.984–0.994) for HD1 and HD2, respectively. When fitted to both intra‐ and postdialytic samples, the results were 0.882 (0.838–0.929) and 0.963 (0.951–0.976) for HD1 and HD2, respectively. Eight patients demonstrated a higher R2 value for HD2 than for HD1. The model seems promising to predict individual plasma phosphate in hemodialysis patients. The results also show good temporal robustness of the model. Further modifications and validation on a larger sample are needed.