AGE-SPECIFIC DYNAMICS OF ESSENTIAL OIL CONTENT IN ABIES SIBIRICA BARK. THEORETICAL ASPECTS OF EVALUATION

Abstract

The variability of the essential oil content in Abies Sibirica bark in the Eastern and Western parts of the Krasnoyarsk forest-steppe was evaluated in eight age groups. The model of the age dynamics of changes in the essential oil content in the bark of Abies Sibirica, which is adequate to the experimental data, was obtained. With increasing age of fir, the content of fir oil in the bark increases from 1.4±0.1% of a. s. s. in 20–30 years of age to 2.8±0.2% of a.s.s. at the age of 70–80 years, with further decreases to 0.4±0.1% of a. s. s. in overmature trees. The results of parametric identification of the model for Abies Sibirica growing in the Krasnoyarsk forest-steppe are presented. Based on the results of 50.000 computational experiments, the simulation method estimates the statistics of changes in the model coefficients and 95% of the boundary of the forecast values of the content of fir oil in the bark. A compartment model is proposed that explains the age-specific dynamics of essential oil content in tree greens and Siberian fir bark. The obtained solution compartment model allows us to associate its parameters with the coefficients of models of changes in the content of fir oil in tree greens and bark obtained by processing experimental data.