The theoretical study of the turning period in numerical weather prediction models based on the Lorenz equations

Author:

Da Chao-Jiu ,Mu Shuai ,Ma De-Shan ,Yu Hai-Peng ,Hou Wei ,Gong Zhi-Qiang , , ,

Abstract

Based on the Lorenz equations, the dynamics of the weather turning period is studied about numerical weather prediction. Through the analysis of the stability of equilibrium points of the Lorenz equations, we get the surfaces which separate the quasi-stable region and quasi-unstable region. In the quasi-stable region, the path curve of the Lorenz equations can remain relatively stable around the equilibrium points, however in the quasi-unstable region, the path curve of the Lorenz equations can spring from this equilibrium point to another one. This is one of the important dynamic characteristics of the Lorenz system, and the paper give new method and theory for the detection of the abrupt change of climate.

Publisher

Acta Physica Sinica, Chinese Physical Society and Institute of Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences

Subject

General Physics and Astronomy

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