Measuring inflation expectations in Russia using stock market data

Author:

Zhemkov M.1,Kuznetsova O.2

Affiliation:

1. Bank of Russia

2. National Research University Higher School of Economics

Abstract

This paper is devoted to the measurement of inflation expectations in Russia based on stock market data for the period from July 2015 to December 2016. It calculates the difference between the yields of the nominal and inflation-indexed government bonds and adjusts it to the inflation risk premium and liquidity risk premium to obtain inflation expectations. This net indicator represents inflation expectations of the participants of the stock market. The estimated inflation expectations can be used to analyze the effectiveness of the information policy.

Publisher

NP Voprosy Ekonomiki

Subject

Economics and Econometrics,Finance

Reference22 articles.

1. Arshavskiy A., Rodionova A. (2012). Formation of nominal yield on the Russian market of government securities: investigation of the Fisher effect. Ekonomicheskaya Politika, No. 4, pp. 68—84. (In Russian).

2. Goloshchapova I., Andreev M. (2017). Measuring inflation expectations of the Russian population with the help of machine learning. Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 6, pp. 71—93. (In Russian).

3. Koychueva M. T., Bogatyrev M. M. (2014). Inflation expectations and methods of studying them. Nauchnyy zhurnal NIU ITMO. Seriya: Ekonomika i Ekologicheskiy Menedzhment, No. 4, pp. 41—49. (In Russian).

4. Loleyt A. S., Gurov I. N. (2011). The process of formation of inflation expectations in the information economy. Dengi i Kredit, No. 1, pp. 57—66. (In Russian).

5. Sokolova A. V. (2014). Inflation expectations and the Phillips curve: an estimation on Russian data. Dengi i Kredit, No. 11, pp. 61—67. (In Russian).

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