Affiliation:
1. Novosibirsk State University;
Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering; Siberian Brunch of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Abstract
The article analyzes the relationship between the price of housing and the volume of issued housing loans in Russia in 2009—2021. Has the development of the mort- gage lending market in recent years driven up housing prices; as has often been claimed? Using data from Rosstat and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on average housing prices and lending volumes in Russia as a whole; as well as in Russian regions; the significance of mutual influence of their quarterly and annual changes is estimated using vector autoregression and panel vector autoregression models; taking into account exogenous variables. It has been found that mortgage lending dynamics was not a significant and stable factor in the growth of housing prices. The latter largely depended on the households’ solvent demand; macroeco- nomic conditions; the state of regional economy; and dynamics of the housing stock.
Subject
Economics and Econometrics,Finance,General Economics, Econometrics and Finance,History