Comparison of the capture–recapture method and seroprevalence survey for estimation of COVID-19 prevalence in the Islamic Republic of Iran
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Published:2023-02-26
Issue:2
Volume:29
Page:126-131
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ISSN:1020-3397
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Container-title:Eastern Mediterranean Health Journal
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language:
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Short-container-title:East Mediterr Health J.
Author:
Kiakalayeh Ali Davoudi,Taramsari Morteza Rahbar,Mohammadi Reza,Kiakalayeh Sajad Davoudi,Kavakpour Hassan
Abstract
Background: Reliable estimation of prevalence is important for monitoring and evaluation of COVID-19 prevention programmes among at-risk populations. Aims: We compared the capture–recapture method with a seroprevalence survey for accurate estimation of the prevalence of COVID-19 during a 1-year period in Guilan Province, northern Islamic Republic of Iran. Methods: We used the capture–recapture method to estimate the prevalence of COVID-19. Records from the primary care registry system and the Medical Care Monitoring Center were compared, using 4 matching approaches based on combinations of the following variables: name, age, gender, date of death, positive or negative cases, and alive or dead cases. Results: The estimated prevalence of COVID-19 in the study population from the beginning of the pandemic in February 2020 until the end of January 2021 was 16.2–19.8%, depending on the matching approach used, which was lower than in previous studies. Conclusion: The capture–recapture method may provide better accuracy than seroprevalence surveys in measuring the prevalence of COVID-19. This method may also reduce the bias in the estimation of prevalence and correct the misconception of policymakers about seroprevalence survey results
Publisher
World Health Organization Regional Office for the Eastern Mediterranean (WHO/EMRO)