Do Illegal Migration Affect Tourism Arrivals in Greece? A Vector Autoregression Analysis

Abstract

Introduction: This paper explores the impact of illegal migration on the tourism sector in Greece. Utilizing a Vector autoregression (VAR) methodology, the research examines the relationship between the influx of illegal migrants and the number of tourist arrivals. The study presents the migration as a phenomenon that takes place dynamically the last decades in Europe in general and the Greek territory particular. By providing, empirical evidence on the short-term and long-term impacts of illegal migration on tourism in Greece, this study contributes to the broader discourse on migration and economic stability. The research's findings reveal that illegal migration does not significantly influence tourism arrivals in Greece. This indicates that tourists’ decisions to visit Greece are driven by factors other than concerns related to illegal migration.   Objective: The objective of this study is to investigate the relationship between the influx of illegal migrants and the number of tourist arrivals   Theoretical Framework: In this topic, the main concepts and theories that underpin the research are presented: the Model of cyclicity, Lee’s migration model.   Method: The research examines the relationship between the influx of illegal migrants and the number of tourist arrivals over a specific period. The methodology used for this research is Vector autoregression analysis, with monthly data for the period January 2015 to December 2023. This analytical approach allows for the examination of the dynamic interactions and potential causality between the two variables over time.   Results and Discussion: The results obtained revealed reveal that illegal migration does not significantly influence tourism arrivals in Greece. Changes in the number of migrants arriving do not predict changes in tourist arrivals, and changes in tourist arrivals do not predict the number of migrants arriving in Greece. The outcome is positive for the Greek tourism industry, which is of a great importance for the country’s GDP and employment politics.   Research Implications: The practical and theoretical implications of this research are discussed, providing insights into how the results can be applied or influence practices in the field of tourism. These implications could encompass the socio-economic sector of the country.   Originality/Value: This study contributes to the literature by a vector autoregression analysis to the broader discourse on migration and economic stability. The relevance and value of this research are evidenced by the findings, that reveal that illegal migration does not significantly impact tourism arrivals in Greece. This indicates that tourists’ decisions to visit Greece are driven by factors other than concerns related to illegal migration.