Güneş ve Rüzgar Enerjisinden Elektrik Üretiminin Gün Öncesi Piyasa Takas Fiyatlarına ve Fiyat Volatilitesine Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği

Abstract

Solar and wind generation are the primary tools to prevent climate change and high carbon emissions. Due to their intermittent generation characteristics, solar and wind power plants have a different impact on the market-clearing price formation compared to conventional generation sources. The paper investigates the solar and wind generation effect on the day ahead market-clearing price in Turkey between the 2016 and 2022. We used a 2nd order polynomial learner model to analyze the impact of solar and wind generation level on the market-clearing price level and volatility. We find that Dutch TTF increases market-clearing price with a coefficient of 0.24. An increase in wind and solar generation reduce the market-clearing price. Solar generation is ineffective on the market-clearing price below a certain demand level. Wind generation reduces market-clearing price with a 37.78 coefficient at low demand levels and a 6.55 coefficient at high demand levels. Solar generation has a price-reducing effect with 5.55 at high demand levels. Finally, Dutch TTF and wind generation increased volatility with coefficients of 0.04 and 0.69; solar generation reduced volatility with a coefficient of 0.83.