Development of a model to predict the risk of early graft failure after adult-to-adult living donor liver transplantation: An ELTR study

Abstract

Graft survival is a critical end point in adult-to-adult living donor liver transplantation (ALDLT), where graft procurement endangers the lives of healthy individuals. Therefore, ALDLT must be responsibly performed in the perspective of a positive harm-to-benefit ratio. This study aimed to develop a risk prediction model for early (3 months) graft failure (EGF) following ALDLT. Donor and recipient factors associated with EGF in ALDLT were studied using data from the European Liver Transplant Registry. An artificial neural network classification algorithm was trained on a set of 2073 ALDLTs, validated using cross-validation, tested on an independent random-split sample (n=518), and externally validated on United Network for Organ Sharing Standard Transplant Analysis and Research data. Model performance was assessed using the AUC, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis. Graft type, graft weight, level of hospitalization, and the severity of liver disease were associated with EGF. The model (http://ldlt.shinyapps.io/eltr_app) presented AUC values at cross-validation, in the independent test set, and at external validation of 0.69, 0.70, and 0.68, respectively. Model calibration was fair. The decision curve analysis indicated a positive net benefit of the model, with an estimated net reduction of 5–15 EGF per 100 ALDLTs. Estimated risks>40% and<5% had a specificity of 0.96 and sensitivity of 0.99 in predicting and excluding EGF, respectively. The model also stratified long-term graft survival (p<0.001), which ranged from 87% in the low-risk group to 60% in the high-risk group. In conclusion, based on a panel of donor and recipient variables, an artificial neural network can contribute to decision-making in ALDLT by predicting EGF risk.