A nomogram for predicting the risk of postoperative fever in elderly patients undergoing endoscopic submucosal dissection of the upper gastrointestinal tract

Abstract

To explore the risk factors of postoperative fever in elderly patients undergoing endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD). A total of 439 patients who met the inclusion criteria were enrolled in this study and randomly divided into training (n = 311) and validation (n = 128) cohorts at a ratio of 7:3. Independent risk factors were screened by single-factor and multiple-factor logistic regression analyses, and a nomogram was established using them. The nomogram was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, decision curve analysis, and calibration plot using the “rms” package in R software (R4.2.1). The study included 439 patients. Female (OR = 2.55, 95% CI: 1.5–4.33), diabetes (OR = 2.38, 95% CI: 1.17–4.85), operation time (OR = 1.01, 95% CI: 1–1.02) were lesion located in the esophagus (OR = 2.37, 95% CI: 1.44–3.88), maximum tumor diameter (OR = 1.3, 95% CI: 1.07–1.57), and placement of a urinary catheter (OR = 7.09, 95%CI: 1.43–35.17) were independent risk factors for postoperative fever in elderly ESD patients (P < .05). Female sex, diabetes, lesions located in the esophagus, lesion size, operation time, and placement of a urinary catheter are risk factors for postoperative fever in ESD patients, and patients with these risk factors should be vigilant for postoperative fever and receive appropriate treatment.