Impact of Holocene environmental change on the evolutionary ecology of an Arctic top predator

Author:

Westbury Michael V.1ORCID,Brown Stuart C.123ORCID,Lorenzen Julie1,O’Neill Stuart2,Scott Michael B.4ORCID,McCuaig Julia4ORCID,Cheung Christina5ORCID,Armstrong Edward6ORCID,Valdes Paul J.7ORCID,Samaniego Castruita José Alfredo1ORCID,Cabrera Andrea A.1ORCID,Blom Stine Keibel1ORCID,Dietz Rune89ORCID,Sonne Christian89ORCID,Louis Marie110ORCID,Galatius Anders9ORCID,Fordham Damien A.12ORCID,Ribeiro Sofia111ORCID,Szpak Paul4ORCID,Lorenzen Eline D.1ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Globe Institute, University of Copenhagen, Øster Voldgade 5-7, Copenhagen DK-1350, Denmark.

2. Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia.

3. Department for Environment and Water, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia.

4. Department of Anthropology, Trent University, 1600 West Bank Drive, Peterborough, Ontario K9L0G2, Canada.

5. Department of Anthropology, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong.

6. Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.

7. School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.

8. Arctic Research Centre (ARC), Department of Ecoscience, Aarhus University, Frederiksborgvej 399, PO Box 358, Roskilde DK-4000, Denmark.

9. Section for Marine Mammal Research, Department of Ecoscience, Aarhus University, Frederiksborgvej 399, Roskilde DK-4000, Denmark.

10. Greenland Institute of Natural Resources, Kivioq 2, PO Box 570, Nuuk 3900, Denmark.

11. Glaciology and Climate Department, Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS), Øster Voldgade 10, Copenhagen DK-1350, Denmark.

Abstract

The Arctic is among the most climatically sensitive environments on Earth, and the disappearance of multiyear sea ice in the Arctic Ocean is predicted within decades. As apex predators, polar bears are sentinel species for addressing the impact of environmental variability on Arctic marine ecosystems. By integrating genomics, isotopic analysis, morphometrics, and ecological modeling, we investigate how Holocene environmental changes affected polar bears around Greenland. We uncover reductions in effective population size coinciding with increases in annual mean sea surface temperature, reduction in sea ice cover, declines in suitable habitat, and shifts in suitable habitat northward. Furthermore, we show that west and east Greenlandic polar bears are morphologically, and ecologically distinct, putatively driven by regional biotic and genetic differences. Together, we provide insights into the vulnerability of polar bears to environmental change and how the Arctic marine ecosystem plays a vital role in shaping the evolutionary and ecological trajectories of its inhabitants.

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Subject

Multidisciplinary

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