Terrestrial amplification of past, present, and future climate change

Author:

Seltzer Alan M.1ORCID,Blard Pierre-Henri23,Sherwood Steven C.4ORCID,Kageyama Masa5ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Department of Marine Chemistry and Geochemistry, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, USA.

2. Centre de Recherches Pétrographiques et Géochimiques, CNRS, Université de Lorraine, Vandoeuvre-lès-Nancy, France.

3. Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium.

4. Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.

5. Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement/Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (LSCE/IPSL), UMR CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France.

Abstract

Terrestrial amplification (TA) of land warming relative to oceans is apparent in recent climatic observations. TA results from land-sea coupling of moisture and heat and is therefore important for predicting future warming and water availability. However, the theoretical basis for TA has never been tested outside the short instrumental period, and the spatial pattern and amplitude of TA remain uncertain. Here, we investigate TA during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ~20 thousand years) in the low latitudes, where the theory is most applicable. We find remarkable consistency between paleotemperature proxies, theory, and climate model simulations of both LGM and future climates. Paleoclimate data thus provide crucial new support for TA, refining the range of future low-latitude, low-elevation TA to 1.37 0.23 + 0.27 (95% confidence interval), i.e., land warming ~40% more than oceans. The observed data model theory agreement helps reconcile LGM marine and terrestrial paleotemperature proxies, with implications for equilibrium climate sensitivity.

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Subject

Multidisciplinary

Cited by 4 articles. 订阅此论文施引文献 订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3