Predictive modeling of U.S. health care spending in late life

Abstract

End-of-life health care spending In the United States, one-quarter of Medicare spending occurs in the last 12 months of life, which is commonly seen as evidence of waste. Einav et al. used predictive modeling to reassess this interpretation. From detailed Medicare claims data, the extent to which spending is concentrated not just on those who die, but on those who are expected to die, can be estimated. Most deaths are unpredictable; hence, focusing on end-of-life spending does not necessarily identify “wasteful” spending. Science , this issue p. 1462